The stability of the nuclear nonproliferation norm: a critique of norm-contestation theory

This article argues that the nuclear nonproliferation norm (NNPN) is a social fact with a relatively independent life of its own and that it has a powerful impact on the behavior of both nuclear-weapon states (NWS) and non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS). It challenges the application of critical constructivist research on norms to the NNPN and the idea that its legitimacy and structural power depend on contestation “all the way down.” State and non-state actors play an important role in explaining the dynamics of the NNPN, but agential constructivism runs the danger of “throwing the baby out with the bath water,” neglecting the structural impact of the NNPN on state behavior. The article examines the limitations of norm-contestation theory, arguing that some norms are more resistant to contestation than others. The NNPN is more difficult to contest than new norms (such as the Responsibility to Protect) because it is rooted in fifty years of nonproliferation nuclear diplomacy. The US-India nuclear deal is not a case of “norm change” but a violation of the NNPN. The “core” of the NNPN has not changed since the US-India nuclear deal. The conflict confronting NWS and NNWS is about the implementation of “type 2” norms (organizing principles) and “type 3” norms (standardized procedures), and not about the “hard core” of the NNPN.     

雨天毫米波制导导弹打击岛礁区水面目标研究

岛礁区作战中，具有二次开机的雷达制导导弹开机后极有可能漏捕目标而错捕岛屿。针对该问题，研究利用适量降雨衰减毫米波雷达的作用距离，使得导引头在全程搜索飞行的过程中先捕目标而不捕岛，到达与末制导雷达提前开机一样的作战效果。基于雨天背景，分析了降雨对毫米波雷达作用距离衰减的影响，总结了毫米波制导导弹打击岛礁区附近目标作战的具体步骤和方法，对反舰导弹岛礁区作战使用具有一定的参考价值。     

基于博弈论的装备采购定价激励模型

不同的定价方式和定价参数的选择对于承包商会起到不同程度的激励作用。为提高装备采购效益,在承包商追求效用最大化假设的基础上,建立了装备采购完全信息动态博弈模型。对价格、成本、承包商努力程度和承包商效用之间的关系进行了研究,证明了成本分担和固定价格的定价方式能够有效激励承包商提高自身努力水平降低成本,并提出了2种定价方式的参数定量计算方法。     

区域目标搜索中基于改进RRT的UAV实时航迹规划

在线自主航迹规划是无人机(Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,UAV)执行区域目标搜索任务的有效保证.针对UAV区域搜索中航迹规划的实时性要求,提出了一种固定搜索模式和动态搜索模式相结合的UAV自主航迹规划框架.在快速扩展随机树(RRT)方法的基础上,通过改进随机扩展树的节点选择和引入启发式信息,提出了基于改进RRT的UAV实时搜索航迹规划算法,该算法能够有效降低在线航迹规划的时间代价和扩展节点数.仿真实验结果验证了本文方法的有效性.     

空投鱼雷最优落水点分析

针对反潜机使用空投鱼雷对潜实施攻击时的最优落水点问题，建立了鱼雷弹道模型、声纳自导系统发现模型、潜艇机动模型、均方差模型，对空投鱼雷对潜攻击过程进行了模拟仿真，得出了相对于不同舷角、距离的鱼雷发现概率，并确定了鱼雷的最优落水点，以期为部队合理使用空投鱼雷提供决策依据。     

基于分形理论的目标航路预测

电磁干扰条件下解决断续航路预测问题对防空兵有效抗击空中目标至关重要。针对包络灰预测方法预测精度较低和Verhulst灰色预测模型计算过程复杂的情况,提出了预测航路的分形方法。在分形理论的基础上,研究了其用于目标断续航路预测的基本思路,建立了基于分形的目标航路预测模型,并对模型进行了求解。最后,利用建立的分形模型对雷达丢失目标后的目标航路进行了预测,通过实例体现了分形方法在用于航路预测时的准确性、灵活性和易实现等特点。结果表明,用该法对断续目标航路的预测具有一定的借鉴意义。     

基于案例决策理论的仿真任务共同体服务选择算法

资源分配优化是面向服务（ SOA）的大型多用途仿真系统的关键问题，而含有不确定状态或效果的服务选择是资源分配优化中的一个难点。针对以上问题，提出了构建仿真任务共同体的方法，基于案例的决策理论（ CBDT）的思想，设计了一种不确定型仿真任务共同体服务选择算法（ CBDSSA）。算法通过服务选择案例相似度的层次化运算，生成相似历史案例集，计算得到相似历史案例的方案效用值，最终评估出目标服务选择方案综合效用值并排序备选。算例验证表明，算法约束条件少，层次结构分明，运算结果直观，为仿真任务共同体服务选择问题提供了一种新的思路和实践手段，对大型多用途仿真系统资源分配优化研究具有一定的参考价值。     

Theoretical calculation and experimental study on the interaction mechanism between TKX-50 and AP

The combination of 5,5′-bistetrazole-1,1′-diolate (TKX-50) and ammonium perchlorate (AP) can make greater use of the chemical energy of TKX-50 based energetic materials. The research on the interaction mechanism between TKX-50 and AP is very important for designing TKX-50-AP compounds and judging the formation feasibility of composite particles, which can lay a theoretical foundation for the preparation of TKX-50-AP mixed crystals and the application of TKX-50 in propellant, propellant and explosive. Herein, in order to research the interaction mechanism between TKX-50 and AP, density-functional theory calculation was applied to optimize three configurations of TKX-50-AP compounds. The geometry structure, electrostatic potential and binding energy of the compounds were predicted, and the electronic density topological analysis was also carried out. Then TKX-50-AP mixed crystals structures were constructed, and the radial distribution function of H–O and H–N in mixed crystals was calculated. Finally, solvent/non-solvent method was applied to prepare TKX-50-AP composites, and the infrared spectroscopy and the non-isothermal decomposition performance of the composites were characterized. Results show that the superposition of positive charges in TKX-50 molecule and negative charges in AP makes the electrostatic potential distributions of TKX-50-AP compounds different from that of TKX-50 and AP. The interaction energies of TKX-50-AP 1, TKX-50-AP 2 and TKX-50-AP 3 are 39.743 kJ/mol, 61.206 kJ/mol and 27.702 kJ/mol, respectively. The interaction between TKX-50 molecules and AP molecules in TKX-50-AP mixed crystals both depends on hydrogen bonds and van der Waals force, and the number and strength of hydrogen bonds are significantly greater than that of van der Waals force. The composition of AP and TKX-50 makes the absorption peak of the five-membered rings and NH₃OH⁺ of TKX-50 shift to low wavenumber in the infrared spectroscopy. In general, TKX-50 interacts with AP via hydrogen bonds and van der Waals force, and the calculated results are in good agreement with the experimental results. The composition of TKX-50 and AP can also prolong the decomposition process.     

基于阶次小波包与粗糙集的轴承故障诊断

针对齿轮箱启动过程中振动信号表现为非平稳、非高斯特征及传统诊断方法诊断精度不高的现状,将阶次小波包和粗糙集理论引入轴承的故障诊断中,提出了一种新的故障诊断方法。首先利用阶次跟踪算法对瞬态振动信号进行重采样,得到等角度分布振动信号,其次采用小波包对该信号分解—重构,并对每个频段的能量进行归一化,构成特征向量,通过粗糙集理论得到清晰、简明的决策规则,最后通过故障实例验证该方法的有效性。     

Constant risk aversion in stochastic contests with exponential completion times

This article analyzes a class of stochastic contests among multiple players under risk‐averse exponential utility. In these contests, players compete over the completion of a task by simultaneously deciding on their investment, which determines how fast they complete the task. The completion time of the task for each player is assumed to be an exponentially distributed random variable with rate linear in the player's investment and the completion times of different players are assumed to be stochastically independent. The player that completes the task first earns a prize whereas the remaining players earn nothing. The article establishes a one‐to‐one correspondence between the Nash equilibrium of this contest with respect to risk‐averse exponential utilities and the nonnegative solution of a nonlinear equation. Using the properties of the latter, it proves the existence and the uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium, and provides an efficient method to compute it. It exploits the resulting representation of the equilibrium investments to determine the effects of risk aversion and the differences between the outcome of the Nash equilibrium and that of a centralized version.© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 66:4–14, 2019